Stay The Course – With a Good Sense of Humor

I wish the right advice was different. It would be so much easier to tell clients I agree, let’s flee to safety and stop this pain. It would be so much easier to just move to cash, so that we don’t have to worry about the effects of the Corona Virus on the financial markets. It would be so much easier to offer you some conservative product that promises to have no downside. The truth of the matter is that in order to have the upside we have enjoyed over the last couple years, we must be able to endure through the downside we are in currently. You simply cannot have one without the other and anyone that tells you different is selling you something.

The more difficult, but right advice, is to stick with your plan, because the market has always recovered, even through events just like this and events even larger. The right advice is to help you stick to your plan, not because we don’t want to make a change, but because historically it is the only way to get you the investment returns you need.

After this is long in the rearview and everything feels great again, we will do this all over again for some other reason. This is why investing is hard and why not everyone can do it. We can help, by giving you the advice you may not want to hear… Stay the course, this too shall pass.

We are all pretty scared right now and I hope all of you know that we take our responsibilities to you seriously. Sometimes, especially in dark times, we need to add some color to the situation and maybe share a laugh. I hope you appreciate that being lighthearted will not change the situation we are in, but it might help us feel better for a short time. I want to share with you a video of Burt White speaking at a conference I attended a couple years ago. On top of being the Managing Director and Chief Investment Officer at LPL Financial, he is one of the most entertaining speakers I have had the privilege to see. The video below is his comparison of being eaten by an anaconda snake and a bear stock market. Spoiler alert, you, your plan, and our partnership is the “knife.” Watch and you’ll understand.

I hope you appreciate the lighthearted message and I hope this brightens your day even just a little.


In a Year Full of Fireworks, It’s Finally Time For the 4th of July

The July Fourth holiday will be very different this year. Although it’s a time to enjoy family and friends, and maybe even watch some fireworks, social distancing and a new wave of COVID-19 cases also may take a seat at the picnic table. We all continue to believe our doctors and medical community will help us conquer this disease; however, with more than 10 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 around the globe (Johns Hopkins), this terrible fight is far from over.

A major second wave of COVID-19 is the big wild card. Although most of us don’t expect to go into full lockdown mode again like we did in March and April, more restrictions may be put in place, which could hinder the economic recovery. But it isn’t all bad news. On June 22, Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease, said at a congressional hearing that a vaccine may be available by early 2021. He noted that in the past it has taken years to develop a vaccine against viruses, but with the entire world working together to beat COVID-19, this vaccine may be the fastest to market ever produced.

Voltaire said, “History never repeats itself. Man always does.” Given the stock market is driven by fear and greed, it has very human-like qualities, which means history may be a guide for what may happen next. In March 2003, stocks hit a major low before a huge spike into early summer, when stocks consolidated—or sat on their gains—during the summer months, followed by an eventual move higher later in the year. There was a very similar reaction in the summer of 2009 after the March 2009 bear market lows. So far in 2020 we’ve had the March lows and a huge rally, so historically, a summertime pullback or consolidation would be normal—and maybe even healthy.

While we’ve faced several health, social, and economic crises this year, July Fourth is a good time to think about how lucky we are to live in this great country and to remember the resilience and perseverance we’ve demonstrated over the past 244 years. History has shown us that better times will come.

On a personal note…

The family and I will be headed to Minnesota for the 4th this year. My wife is from there and spending the 4th on the lake is one of those things that is non-negotiable. As we weighed the choices between flying or driving, we talked with friends, family and even doctors about which option is safer. After much deliberation we decided the hour and a half flight was the better decision as opposed to the 16-hour drive with two young kids. It will be interesting to see what flying is like now days, we will obviously be very diligent about the safety precautions which have become a part of everyday life. But the real question is, will they still hand out golden wings for my kids, because if not, we may need an Air Marshall to deal with the ensuing tantrums. I will be sure to share our experience with you when we get back.

Best wishes for a happy and safe Fourth of July, and contact me if you have any questions.

The Clock Starts Today on This Historically Accurate Election Winner Indicator

2020 has been historic and devastating in many ways, from the fastest bear market ever, to one of the greatest stock market recoveries ever. Not to mention a historic drop in the economy in the second quarter, with likely a record jump due in the third quarter. With so many things happening, it is easy to forget this is also an election year. As we inch closer to the highly anticipated vote, we expect more focus to move to November 3.

Here’s the catch—stocks very well could be one of the best indicators to show who will win. “It is actually quite simple; when stocks gained the three months before the election, the incumbent party tended to win and vice versa when stocks were lower,” explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Think about 2016 for instance; no one expected Hillary Clinton to lose, except the stock market that is, as stocks were quite weak before that upset.”

Given the election is three months from today, the clock starts now. But why has this worked in the past and what could it be telling us? Maybe Wall Street can sense there is change in the air and this leads to uncertainty over what the new leadership might look like, so there is selling. Compare this when markets feel comfortable with the incumbent party winning, as they likely know what to expect based on the previous four years.

As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, how the S&P 500 Index has done the three months ahead of the election can predict who will win the election in November. In fact, stocks have accurately predicted the winning president every year since 1984 and been right 20 out of 23 of the last elections (87%).


This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.

References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services. LPL Financial doesn’t provide research on individual equities. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

All index and market data are from FactSet and MarketWatch.

This Research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC.

Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial (LPL), a registered investment advisor and broker-dealer (member FINRA/SIPC).

Insurance products are offered through LPL or its licensed affiliates.  To the extent you are receiving investment advice from a separately registered independent investment advisor that is not an LPL affiliate, please note LPL makes no representation with respect to such entity.

Not Insured by FDIC/NCUA or Any Other Government Agency

Not Bank/Credit Union Guaranteed

Not Bank/Credit Union Deposits or Obligations

May Lose Value

Cybersecurity Seminar

Victim Assistance coordinator at the Colorado Bureau of Investigation

We will have lunch provided, Q&A regarding cybersecurity where Hazel is considered a national expert in ID theft and Fraud. Among numerous accolades and contributions Hazel is the 2014 recipient of the U.S. Department of Justice National Crime Victim Service Award.


Collier’s Office – in the conference room on the 7th floor.
8055 E Tufts Ave.
Denver, CO 80237


Rsvp before 9/24

Call: 303.741.5040 to hold your exclusive spot

Wings Over the Rockies Speaker Event

Cocktail Reception at Cafe Mercato & Wings Over the Rockies Speaker Event Celebration of the 50th anniversary of the moon landing.

With Sen. Harrison Schmitt, Apollo 17

Enjoy an evening with Senator Harrison Schmitt as he shares his experience as an Apollo 17 Astronaut and insights on the entire Apollo program.

Senator Harrison H. Schmitt is also a planetary geologist, aerospace and earth science consultant and former United States Senator from New Mexico


Cafe Mercato
7561 E Academy Blvd
Denver, CO 80230


Rsvp before 6/1

Call: 303.741.5040 to hold your exclusive spot – limited space available.

Tax Forum Seminar

We all know tax changes are on the horizon. No matter what happens this year, you’ll be ready to start the 2018 tax season after attending our Tax Forum Seminar.

We invite you to join us and our long time CPA, Barbara Medina. Some of you already work with Barbara and she will be available to answer any and all tax questions you may have regarding the upcoming tax code updates.

We will provide beverages with a light lunch.

Speaker: Barbara Medina, CPA

12:00 – 12:30 p.m.
CPA to discuss main tax code updates
12:30 – 1:00 p.m.
Main Tax Forum; CPA answers tax questions


Collier’s Office – in the conference room on the 7th floor.
8055 E Tufts Ave.
Denver, CO 80237


Rsvp before 1/12

Call: 303.741.5040 to hold your exclusive spot – limited space available.